Strait Crisis Hits Oil Markets: Brent crude spikes above $115/barrel within 30 days

78%

probability · 74% confidence · 30 days

Strait Crisis Hits Oil Markets forecast (73% → 78%): Brent crude currently at $105.32, approaching $115 threshold. Iran's confirmed seizures of multiple vessels in Hormuz and US boarding of Iranian tankers signal supply shock intensification. Probability increased 5 points as mechanism is now explicitly confirmed and price trajectory supports breach within 30 days.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.