US-Iran Pause Breaks Down: Military strikes resume within 14 days

88%

probability · 71% confidence · 14 days

Trump threats and US-Iran peace talks missing their deadline signals breakdown of ceasefire framework. Multiple alerts show escalating rhetoric. Lowering slightly from 94% to 88% given that actual military strikes take time to coordinate; however, risk remains very high that 'pause' breaks down within 14 days.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.