Brent Oil Retreats Below 98: Crude falls below $98/barrel within 21 days as demand hesitation grows

32%

probability · 32% confidence · 21 days

Brent at 100.82 as of Oct 6. Recent oil forecasts have been overconfident on upside; track record shows repeated failures on $105+ thresholds and volatility within $95–$105 band. Base rate for oil_crash (30d) is 5%; for prices to drop from 100.82 to below 98 (2.8% decline) in 21 days is modest downside. Houthi Red Sea pressure supports floor, but demand recession fears and Trump trade policies create headwind. Assigning 32% reflects cautious stance based on recent miss rate and technical support levels.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.