Shipping Insurance Spikes: Hormuz corridor underwriters raise premiums 30%+ within 14 days

97%

probability · 82% confidence · 14 days

Forecast tracks Hormuz shipping insurance premiums rising 30%+ within 14 days. US-Iran escalation at 9+ consecutive nights of strikes; this is the most sustained military campaign of current crisis. Underwriters typically respond within 3-7 days of each major escalation cycle. All three escalation triggers present (direct strikes, infrastructure targeting, ongoing tension). Base rate for trade disruption is 10%; signals elevate this to 97%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.