Pakistan Brokered Peace Push: Pakistan formally proposes Iran-US ceasefire mediation by May 15

48%

probability · 58% confidence · 44 days

Pakistan has NOW formally transmitted Iran response to US ceasefire proposal via official channels. This constitutes active mediation brokering — originally forecast at 28% was too conservative given Pakistan's confirmed diplomatic role. New evidence shows Pakistan IS proposing/facilitating ceasefire mediation, not merely discussing it. Revision reflects execution of forecast outcome. Manually resolved 2026-05-19: confirmed event occurred within the forecast window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.