Gas Prices Plummet: US retail gasoline drops below $3.80/gallon within 30 days

28%

probability · 28% confidence · 30 days

Trump claims gas prices will drop post-Iran war, but current headline inflation from $118 oil and supply disruption signals continued upward pressure. US retail pump prices lag wholesale by 1-2 weeks. Base rate for major commodity price reversals within 30 days is low (~8-12% for oil spikes, inverse for crashes). Strong headwinds from geopolitical premium and cartel behavior suggest prices hold or edge higher. Moderate confidence due to volatile signal mix.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.