German Extremism Goes Mainstream: Far-right party wins 8%+ of Bundestag seats in early election

78%

probability · 64% confidence · 60 days

Berlin mass shooting (6 killed, far-right network at 60k) substantially increases pathway to 8%+ Bundestag win. Far-right recruitment surge post-incident and existing electoral momentum (far-right party polling strength) combine to elevate confidence. Shooting becomes recruitment/radicalization accelerant.

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