Plague Rumor Turns Real: Russia confirms pneumonic plague case outside Siberia within 14 days

44%

probability · 28% confidence · 14 days

Siberia plague case confirmed in lab worker; no spread outside Siberia yet reported. Russia's opacity makes verification difficult. Maintaining conservative probability; Trump engagement suggests diplomatic coordination may prevent secondary cases from being disclosed. Lowering from 48% based on lack of confirmed spread signal.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.