Bird Flu Reaches New Continent: H5N1 confirmed in 2+ additional countries outside Australia, DRC by July 5

88%

probability · 72% confidence · 14 days

H5N1 bird flu forecast: 2+ countries outside Australia/DRC by July 5. Expires in 8 days. Health news shows 'Ebola volunteers not always welcome' but no specific new H5N1 country confirmations in latest batch. Outbreak_spread base rate (30d) 15%; H5N1 is higher-velocity (~25-30%). Revising DOWN from 94% due to absence of new country signals in this cycle.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.