Shipping Chaos Deepens: Port Authority raises Hormuz transit insurance 40%+ within 10 days

79%

probability · 79% confidence · 10 days

US-Iran military escalation has reached critical threshold with 10+ consecutive nights of strikes, Iranian drone campaigns, and Houthi maritime blockade threats. Existing forecasts (ID:c3cb408a, 81% for 25%+ premium rise; ID:456c350f, 97% for 30%+ premium spike) already capture baseline risk. Current intensity suggests underwriters will move faster and higher. Hormuz shipping disruption patterns from past crises show 40%+ rate increases within 7–10 days when direct military operations occur.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.