Iran Inflation Triggers Currency Crisis: Iranian rial depreciates 25%+ against US dollar within 30 days

76%

probability · 72% confidence · 30 days

Original forecast: Iranian rial depreciates 25%+ vs USD within 30 days (assigned 88%). New signal: Tehran is selling the US-Iran peace deal as a 'victory' but 'for Iranians it was necessity'—indicating economic desperation persists. However, the deal being signed likely provides temporary relief (sanctions relief signaling, oil revenue reopening expectations). The 25%+ depreciation threshold is severe; base rate for currency crisis is 2%, and while Iran faces inflation pressure, the deal signature may buy stabilization time. Lowering to 76% to reflect near-term breathing room. Forecast resolved (news-checked 2026-10-30): The rial did not fall 25% in the window. The open-market record was …

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.