Sudan Slides Into Famine: UN declares famine conditions in El-Obeid or surrounding Kordofan region by July 15

96%

probability · 78% confidence · 22 days

Sudan Slides Into Famine: El-Obeid explicitly named in multiple new signals as frontline city facing massacre/collapse fears. Famine conditions in El-Obeid now appear imminent given RSF momentum. Signal strength increased; maintain high confidence but slightly lower than 97% due to lingering uncertainty on exact timing vs. famine declaration.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.