Nigeria Terror Trials Mass Convict: Military tribunals secure 50%+ convictions in 500-suspect trial by May 20

54%

probability · 54% confidence · 42 days

Nigeria begins mass trial of 500 terrorism suspects amid Easter attacks killing dozens and military rescuing 31 hostages. Nigerian military courts historically operate with fast-track procedures and high conviction rates (80%+) in terror cases. 42 days provides runway for phase-one verdicts or guilty pleas covering at least 250+ cases. Base rate for mass_protest/policy_change (15-20%) and regional security/military_action (10%) supports moderate-to-high probability.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.