Strait Cargo Insurance Spikes: Underwriters raise premiums 35%+ for Hormuz transit within 7 days

76%

probability · 81% confidence · 7 days

Strait Cargo Insurance Spikes forecast (expires 2026-07-05) shows new tanker strike reported in Hormuz. Insurance market has likely reacted; given alert status and active Iranian funeral mobilization creating tactical uncertainty, premium spike probability remains elevated but market may have already moved. Reducing from 84% to 76% as immediate market reaction window may have closed.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.