Economic Headwinds Building: Eurozone inflation ticks up amid energy shock from Iran war by May 15

91%

probability · 52% confidence · 52 days

Eurozone inflation momentum visible: energy shock from Iran war, oil prices spiking, supply chain disruptions. Forecast requires ticking up by May 15 (2 days). May inflation data typically released mid-month; timing is tight but energy price pass-through is mechanical. 91% (down from 99%) reflects reporting deadline uncertainty but economic mechanism is solid. Manually resolved 2026-05-19: confirmed event occurred within the forecast window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.