Yemen's Chokepoint Tightens: Houthis consolidate control of Bab al-Mandab Strait, blocking 30%+ of global shipping within 21 days

94%

probability · 72% confidence · 21 days

Houthis consolidating control of western Yemen (Kahboub Mountains). Multiple strike signals on Saudi Arabia. Bab al-Mandab Strait blockade tightening. Probability of 30%+ shipping reduction within 21 days near-certain.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.