Starlink Restrictions Trigger Ceasefire Collapse: Ukraine resumes major offensive strikes on Russian targets within 14 days

81%

probability · 81% confidence · 14 days

Multiple critical alerts confirm Trump administration is restricting Starlink to Ukraine AND Ukraine has already resumed refinery strikes defying ceasefire terms. This is active escalation, not forecast of future behavior. The Trump-Putin diesel deal signals Western leverage withdrawal, which historically weakens negotiated pauses. Base rate for conflict_escalation is 12%; evidence shows Ukraine is already moving into offensive posture. Key signal: Zelenskyy stated 'we're done' with truce conditions. Probability reflects near-term continuation of resumed strike campaign. Forecast resolved (news-checked 2026-11-05): Around October 15, Zelensky declared a short energy truce over and Ukraine…

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.