Power Grid Collapses: Electricity blackout in regions of Cuba extends beyond 72 hours within 14 days

71%

probability · 79% confidence · 14 days

Merged — duplicate of 264debe0 Active forecast ID 22ed7c94 (grid collapse beyond 48 hours) sits at 64% with 10-day window. New signals show national blackout already occurring due to US oil blockade and Iran war supply constraints. Cuban energy infrastructure is fragile; oil imports rely on Venezuela and Iran, both now disrupted. This forecast raises the bar slightly (72+ hours vs. 48, and 14-day window vs. 10) to capture the likelihood of a second/extended collapse event. Base rate for economic disruption shocks is ~4-7% baseline, but Cuba's structural vulnerability to oil shocks is well-documented. Confidence high (79%) because the causal chain (oil embargo + regional crisis + weak infr…

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