Brazilian Schools Under Siege: Second school shooting or mass casualty attack occurs in Brazil within 30 days

42%

probability · 34% confidence · 30 days

Teen gunman kills 2 staff, injures children in Brazilian school attack (Sao Paulo). This IS a school shooting event. Existing forecast threshold asks for 'second shooting within 30 days.' First event just occurred. Probability that a second attack follows within 30 days in Brazil is elevated given security spiral signals and mounting violence. Raising from 34% to 42%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.