Iranian Rhetoric Meets Action: Tehran initiates military exercises in Gulf or fires test missile within 21 days

99%

probability · 68% confidence · 21 days

Multiple new signals confirm Iran initiating military coordination with Russia (rocket launcher deal, Security Chief in Moscow with Khamenei message). Simultaneous reports of tanker strikes in Hormuz Strait and Iranian buildup of underground weapons storage. Original forecast assigned 99% for military exercises or missile test within 21 days—these signals substantially increase evidence that threshold will be met imminently.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.