US Recession Risk Rises: Federal Reserve signals interest rate hold or pivot within 45 days

2%

probability · 2% confidence · 45 days

Iran-US conflict is choking the Iranian economy; Red Sea shipping disruptions are raising costs across global supply chains. Trump's tariff threats add further uncertainty. Fed has historically paused or pivoted when supply-side shocks threaten growth. Base rate for rate hold/pivot: ~8-10% per FOMC cycle, but macroeconomic stress multiplies this. Assign moderate probability reflecting real but not overwhelming recession signals.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.