Ebola Crosses Border: Uganda or Tanzania confirms first case within 28 days as Kenya outbreak spreads regionally

91%

probability · 41% confidence · 28 days

Kenya second case confirmed; Ebola already demonstrated cross-border transmission (case traveled undetected across nations). Uganda-Tanzania border adjacency to Kenya/DRC outbreak zones creates high transmission probability. Regional outbreak spread base rate (15% over 30 days) substantially exceeded by epidemiological evidence. Forecast expires Nov 5; signal strength now very high.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.