Heat Kills in Europe: France-Spain combined excess heat deaths exceed 500 by September 15

74%

probability · 72% confidence · 35 days

Forecast requires France-Spain combined excess heat deaths exceed 500 by September 15. Timeframe now 11 days. Current signals show relentless Gaza heat worsening water access; Spain-France heatwave continues. Base rate for temperature-driven mortality in Europe during summer is 35% (extreme_weather, 30-day). No contrary signals (cooling trend, heat wave breaking). Slightly raising from 72% to 74% due to shortened timeframe and continued hot conditions in alerts.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.