Indonesian Seismic Sequence Continues: Second significant earthquake (5.0+M) strikes Jakarta region within 21 days

53%

probability · 53% confidence · 21 days

Jakarta metropolitan region experienced 5.2M earthquake recently. Historical natural_disaster base rate is 30% over 30 days; aftershock probability in tectonically active zones is elevated for 3+ weeks post-mainshock. Stress transfer on nearby faults increases secondary event likelihood. However, most aftershocks cluster in first week; probability moderates for 21-day window.

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