Russia's Plague Spread Confirmed: Third pneumonic plague case or fatality reported outside Siberia within 14 days

68%

probability · 38% confidence · 14 days

Russia's Plague Spread Confirmed forecast (expires Oct 21) currently at 71%; new data shows WHO actively seeking verification and state messaging remains opaque despite denial statements. Trajectory suggests continued reporting friction rather than rapid confirmation, but persistence of case reports outside Siberia is now more likely given silence pattern. Minimal adjustment downward to 68%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.