Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Fails: Fourth major strike killing 10+ civilians occurs within 14 days

99%

probability · 84% confidence · 14 days

Israel resumes Lebanon strikes hours after ceasefire renewal; Hezbollah formally rejects agreement terms (critical alert x2). Ceasefire is effectively dead on arrival. Fourth major strike killing 10+ is now near-certain within 14 days.

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