Climate Disaster Hits Tropics: Tropical cyclone or monsoon flooding kills 100+ in South/Southeast Asia within 30 days

38%

probability · 38% confidence · 30 days

No active climate forecast for tropical cyclone/monsoon deaths in this region (existing Tokyo earthquake forecast is seismic, not weather). Late monsoon season (Nov) in South/Southeast Asia (India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand) historically produces high-impact events. Base rate for extreme_weather (30 days) is 35%; natural_disaster (30 days) is 30%. Recent signals show Indonesia wildfire pollution impacts (separate forecast), creating regional atmospheric instability. Prior climate forecast performance (0/3 correct at 73% avg confidence) warrants downward adjustment. Timeframe catches tail end of active monsoon window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.