Japan Weapons Export Boom: Tokyo approves sales to 3+ allied nations by May 15

91%

probability · 62% confidence · 25 days

WHO confirms 5 cases linked to cruise ship (May 8). Additional reports indicate 'more hantavirus cases possible' and EU closely monitoring outbreak. Secondary transmission and contact tracing expanding. Increasing from 88% to 91% based on confirmed case growth trajectory. Manually resolved 2026-05-19: confirmed event occurred within the forecast window.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.