Cocoa Prices Stay Elevated: Cocoa futures remain above $12,000/metric ton through May 15

67%

probability · 67% confidence · 45 days

News headline explicitly reports 'Easter eggs smaller and more expensive as cocoa prices remain high.' This signals sustained cocoa supply stress and no near-term price relief. West African cocoa production (Ivory Coast, Ghana) faces climate and conflict headwinds. Global chocolate manufacturers signaling pricing power suggests structural tightness in cocoa markets. Historical context: cocoa volatility often persists 45+ days once structural demand/supply imbalances emerge. Current elevated levels likely sticky through mid-May.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.