German Economy Tanks: Eurozone recession indicators signal contraction within 60 days

21%

probability · 21% confidence · 60 days

Germany's warnings of 'economic catastrophe' from Iran war energy disruption, combined with OECD growth forecast cuts and critical alerts on supply chain fracturing (Hungary gas disputes, Europe fuel rationing), suggest recession risk is material. Energy-dependent manufacturing facing 30%+ cost shock. Base rate for recession (90 days) is 4%; Iran supply shock and cascade effects elevate this significantly.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.