Indonesia Volcano Threatens Cities: Mount Merapi forces 50,000+ evacuation within 14 days

85%

probability · 74% confidence · 14 days

Mount Semeru volcano eruption confirmed with hiker deaths. Alert signals indicate hikers killed on slopes. Evacuation orders likely escalating. Historical precedent: Mount Merapi 2010 evacuation exceeded 1M. Current forecast targets 50k+ within 14 days. Given confirmed eruption activity and hiker casualties, escalation to mass evacuation orders is now highly probable. Raising from 78% to 85% — eruption is live and deaths are confirmed.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.