Spy Networks Exposed: Poland arrests 10+ Russian operatives within 14 days

64%

probability · 64% confidence · 14 days

Poland reports unprecedented surge in Russian espionage operations (elevated alert, multiple alerts). UK convicted two Chinese spies, signaling elevated Western counterintelligence activity. Base rate on cyber_attack (25% / 30 days) transfers to espionage disclosure cycles. Poland's documented intelligence cascade suggests imminent formal arrests/indictments to demonstrate security competence to NATO allies. Confidence is moderately high but not extreme — actual arrests may be withheld for operational security.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.