Siberia Plague Breaks Containment: Second confirmed pneumonic plague case reported outside laboratory by October 15

48%

probability · 31% confidence · 9 days

Siberia plague lab worker death confirmed. US CDC monitoring closely; Trump-Putin engagement on plague announced. Containment is tightening, not loosening. Revised downward from 42% — laboratory confinement appears to be holding. New signal: Trump direct engagement with Putin on this issue may indicate successful containment communication.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.