Afghan Children Starving Fast: UNICEF reports 1.5+ million under-5s with severe acute malnutrition by September 15

76%

probability · 72% confidence · 21 days

Afghan displacement crisis intensified — signals now show 8.9 million IDPs (Afghanistan) and 8.7 million IDPs (Kyiv) in active displacement. Original forecast assigned 72% for 1.5+ million under-5s with severe acute malnutrition by Sept 15. Displacement signals suggest worsening food security. Health emergency base rate is 4%, but Afghan malnutrition crisis has 70%+ historical precedent given scale of displacement. Bumping to 76%.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.