Modi's Gold Ban Backfires: India gold imports fall 35%+ in May-June amid wartime austerity push

72%

probability · 72% confidence · 45 days

Modi government has explicitly urged Indians to buy less gold and skip foreign trips as Iran war strains economy. This is unprecedented wartime messaging targeting gold consumption. India is world's largest gold importer (~800 tonnes/year). Historical precedent: during COVID lockdown, Indian gold imports fell 40%+. Current geopolitical pressure + explicit government messaging creates strong demand shock. Base rate for commodity shifts (commodity_spike historical) ~8%, but government-directed demand destruction is much higher. Assign 72%.

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