Modi's Gold Ban Backfires: India gold imports fall 35%+ in May-June amid wartime austerity push

82%

probability · 72% confidence · 45 days

Iran war and energy spike confirmed; Hajj 2026 pricing signals emerging from 1.5M pilgrimage attendance despite war. Energy costs cascading into pilgrimage fees. Modi's austerity measures in India create gold import compression. Original 75% updated to 82% as dual signals (war energy premium + austerity) converge.

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.