Cuba Blackout Worsens: Power outages exceed 18 consecutive hours within 30 days

85%

probability · 79% confidence · 30 days

Merged — duplicate of 264debe0 Existing forecast (ID:88cd1d12) sets 12+ consecutive hours at 78% within 30 days. New signals: Cuba electric grid has already collapsed (national blackout reported), US oil blockade in effect. Recent cascade suggests infrastructure near failure threshold. 18-hour outages are incremental escalation from 12-hour baseline. Economic infrastructure degradation typically accelerates once fuel reserves deplete. Current grid state and blockade persistence support higher probability than 12-hour threshold. Base rate for infrastructure failure under sanctions (economic disruption, 90 days ~15%) supports 80%+ range.…

Brunu publishes AI-generated probability forecasts on world events, markets, and policy. Forecasts update as new signals come in and are graded correct/incorrect at close — full track record at brunu.ai/forecasts. Informational only. Not financial, legal, or medical advice.